‘Barbie’ vs ‘Oppenheimer’: Who Will Win at the Oscars?


The two movies have fought it out at the box office, but Barbie and Oppenheimer’s battle looks set to continue into the 2023 awards season.

Both Barbie and Oppenheimer, or “Barbenheimer” when they join forces, have been the height of entertainment this summer—though the fans of Indiana Jones, Mission: Impossible, and Sound of Freedom would beg to differ.

In reality, it’s been no close contest at the worldwide box office, as Greta Gerwig’s Barbie has blown away the competition, including Oppenheimer, by raking in over $1 billion. Christopher Nolan’s three-hour epic Oppenheimer has performed admirably still, taking in over $560 million, according to Box Office Mojo, powered by IMDb.

While Barbie is the clear winner financially, who will claim more accolades come awards season? Who is more likely to win the most prestigious honor of Best Picture at the 2024 Academy Awards?

The race for the Oscars this year seems reminiscent of the 2010 Academy Awards, when The Hurt Locker, a gritty war movie that took in less than $50 million, beat the record-breaking 3D adventure Avatar.

Movie producer Laura Pellegrini predicts it to be a tight race between the two blockbusters.

“As people make their predictions and cast their votes, there is no doubt that both films could garner a slew of nominations,” the vice president of Rosso Films International told Newsweek. “One competitive category will be Best Director between two very different, yet equally phenomenal filmmakers.”

Pellegrini said: “Greta Gerwig created her impressive Barbie-verse from scratch and told a story that was not only entertaining but unexpectedly moving; who would’ve thought that behind a plastic veneer was a myriad of human emotions? Then there’s Christopher Nolan, whose mind-bending direction and towering visual mastery have culminated in what many call his magnum opus with Oppenheimer.

“It will be a tight race, but as it stands, it looks like Nolan could very well garner his first golden statue for Best Director,” Pellegrini said.

The betting odds seem to agree with this assertion so far, with Oppenheimer being the favorite to beat out Barbie in almost every category.

What Are the Current Odds for the 2024 Oscars?

Best Picture

  • Oppenheimer +150
  • Killers of the Flower Moon +400
  • Past Lives +800
  • Maestro +1000
  • Anatomy of a Fall +1100
  • Dune: Part Two +1200
  • Lee +1200
  • The Color Purple +1400
  • The Killer +1600
  • Barbie +1600

In the Best Picture category, Oppenheimer is currently the odds-on favorite to take home the trophy, with Barbie in contention but seemingly unlikely to win. Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon, an Apple TV+ movie that will launch in theaters on October 6, is also ranking high in the Oscars race. As many as 10 movies are often nominated for Best Picture which means Barbie could squeak a nomination, but a win is very unlikely.

Best Director

  • Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer) +205
  • Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon) +300
  • Greta Gerwig (Barbie) +450
  • Bradley Cooper (Maestro) +500
  • Ben Affleck (Air) +600

While both Nolan and Gerwig are highlighted again in this category, once again Nolan is the strong favorite to take home the gong, which would be his first Academy Award. Martin Scorsese, who has won many before, is also in with a shout.

Best Actor

  • Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer) +110
  • Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon) +225
  • Colman Domingo (Rustin or The Color Purple) +500
  • Joaquin Phoenix (Napoleon) +650
  • Alden Ehrenreich (Fair Play) +700

Oppenheimer’s leading man, Irish actor Cillian Murphy, is the bookmaker’s favorite to win the Best Actor prize at the 2024 Oscars. Ryan Gosling isn’t being suggested as a winner for his impressive Barbie performance, though there might be more hype for him in the Best Supporting Actor category. Leonardo DiCaprio could also win his second Best Actor Oscar if his performance in Killers of the Flower Moon impresses voters.

Best Actress

  • Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer) +215
  • Fantasia Barrino (The Color Purple) +300
  • Carey Mulligan (Maestro) +350
  • Margot Robbie (Barbie) +500
  • Annette Benning (Nyad) +675

Margot Robbie will surely be included in the conversation for her role as Stereotypical Barbie in Barbie, but Oppenheimer actress Emily Blunt is currently the favorite. Carey Mulligan may also impress in Bradley Cooper’s Maestro movie, which doesn’t launch until later in 2023.

All of these odds listed are from VegasInsider.com, and the odds vary between betting companies. Generally, the majority have Oppenheimer leading the nominations list with Barbie expected to pick up a couple of nominations but no obvious wins.

The 2024 Academy Award nominations won’t be announced until early 2024, with the winners announced during the ceremony, likely in March 2024. We’re still a long way off so the current odds are based on what has already been released, and what movies there is currently a buzz around amongst industry insiders. A performance or movie could still emerge and shock everyone between now and then.

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