France is experiencing extreme political confusion following French President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to call for… elections Early parliamentarism.
The elections threaten to upend the relative stability that has prevailed over two decades of the president, prime minister and parliament working in harmony.
It is expected that none of the main political camps, the National Rally, will win Rightist The extremist and the new leftist Popular Front bloc, or centrists, led by Macron, have an absolute majority and will face difficulty in forming a government.
According to Agence France-Presse, the country is heading towards one of four possible scenarios.
“Coexistence” between a president and a government from two camps
Polls indicate that the far-right National Rally party, led by three-time presidential candidate Marine Le Pen and its current president, Jordan Bardella, will receive the largest number of votes after the second round on July 7.
If the National Rally and its allies secure a majority in the National Assembly, Macron will find himself in a “coexistence” between a president and a government from two camps on opposite sides. The coexistence between Macron and his far-right opponents is likely to be tense.
While the far right will be able to implement part of its internal program, such as limiting immigration, only the president can call a referendum or vote on constitutional amendments. The president, who usually formulates foreign and defense policy, may find his hands tied if the National Rally appoints nationalist defense and foreign ministers who oppose his world view.
Coalition government
France has rejected coalition governments since the post-war Fourth Republic (1946-1958), when it witnessed 22 governments in 12 years.
Since losing his parliamentary majority in 2022, Macron has sought to form alliances in Parliament on the basis of exchanging votes, or imposing legislation without a vote instead of concluding an alliance with another party.
The National Rally party or the left may try to do the same thing if it does not obtain a majority, but a minority government from the extreme right or left may lose in a vote of confidence.
National Rally President Bardella said he would refuse to be prime minister unless he obtained an absolute majority.
For its part, Macron’s camp hopes that if the elections lead to a parliament without a majority, it will be able to form a coalition with moderates from the left and right.
As part of its outreach to potential allies, Macron’s party did not present candidates in 67 electoral districts in which center-right or center-left candidates were competing. But Macron has limited his options by placing the far-left “France Proud” party on an equal footing with the far right in what he calls “extremism” in the country.
Technocratic government
Another option is for Macron to appoint a technocratic government that all parties can support.
It is highly uncertain whether the far right or left would support such a move that would allow Macron to buy time to introduce changes to his way of governing.
Macron’s resignation
Macron’s resignation if he faces the possibility of being removed from the far right or the far left would represent the most dramatic scenario.
Currently, both camps indicate that instead of working with the president to pull France out of political paralysis, they will pressure him to step down.
Le Pen, who is expected to seek to succeed Macron in the 2027 presidential elections, had warned that “he will have no choice but to resign” in the event of a “political crisis.”
But Macron pledged to remain in office until the end of his second term in 2027, whatever the outcome.