The US President appeared Joe Biden On the presidential debate stage in Atlanta with former President Donald TrumpHis sole goal was to dispel doubts about the effects of his advanced age and his ability to lead the United States for another presidential term, but his faltering performance backfired and reinforced these doubts.
From the first minutes of the debate, Biden’s performance was lackluster, and the night ended with panic spreading among Democrats and some undecided voters, as the US president appeared agitated and weak for most of the debate and frozen at other times, unlike his competitor Trump.
After the debate hosted by CNN, the former Democratic Senator from Missouri and a supporter of Biden, Claire McCaskill, wrote on the “X” platform that Biden had one thing to achieve, which was to reassure America that he was up to the job at his current age, and he failed. That night.
“I’m not the only one who’s heartbroken right now,” McCaskill added. “There are a lot of people who watched this tonight and felt very scared for Joe Biden.”
The day after the debate, during a campaign event in North Carolina, Biden admitted that his performance was not good. He said to the audience, more active than last night: “I know that I am not young, I no longer walk as easily as I used to.. I no longer speak smoothly as I used to.. I am no longer as good at debate as I was before, but I know what I know.” “I know how to tell the truth.”
While Trump made multiple allegations during the debate, including that Democrats support aborting children after they are born, and evaded answering a question about the possibility of him accepting the election result, whatever it may be, Biden’s old age was more strongly present, and the debate reinforced it as his greatest weakness.
Even an opinion poll, conducted by SSRS Research for CNN, showed Trump’s superiority over Biden in the debate. The poll, the results of which appeared after the debate on Thursday, and was conducted among 565 registered American voters, revealed that Trump’s performance was better by 67% compared to 33% in favor of Biden.
Experts and politicians who spoke to Asharq Al-Awsat believed that the president’s disappointing performance could cost him the support of undecided voters. However, the experts said that replacing Biden with another Democratic candidate is an “unlikely scenario,” but they pointed out that “nothing is impossible in politics.”
Biden.. Disappointing performance
In a CNN poll conducted on Thursday night, a 57% majority of debate viewers said they did not really trust Biden’s ability to lead the country.
14% of respondents said that the debate made them reconsider their choice, but it did not change their minds yet, while 5% confirmed that the debate changed their minds about who they will vote for next November.
While the bet in this first presidential debate was on swing voters, political researcher Madeleine Conday said that the debate was “disappointing” and may cost the American president skeptical voters, noting that he did not have a good debate.
Conway added to Al-Sharq: “Biden’s voice was weak and weak. He made mistakes in some comments and stuttered some words, and spoke with an unusual speed at the beginning of the debate. He repeated some words, and became stagnant in some moments, and slowly he looked at Trump with his mouth open for a period of time.” “Time.”
There are two basic types of swing voters, explained Widener University political science professor J. Wesley Lecron. The first are people who are generally uninterested in politics and don’t engage in political news, at least not until after the November election.
Speaking to Al-Sharq, Lecron ruled out the possibility that this type of swing voters had watched the debate, or even followed the media coverage of it, “and therefore, the debate may have had little impact on their votes.”
The other hesitant group, according to Lecron, is those who do not prefer both options, whether Biden or Trump. She is trying to decide whether to vote for the least bad option, noting that Biden’s performance on Thursday does not help him win the votes of this group. He added, “However, I am not sure that they saw much of what they liked in Trump either.”
For his part, political science professor at Webster University, William Hall, described Biden’s performance as “less impressive.”
“Biden did not do much, in the first debate with former President Trump, to boost his current levels of support among swing or independent voters or to generate much additional support among other voters who have not yet decided who they will support for the presidency,” Hall told Asharq.
However, Hull denied that Biden’s lackluster performance would cause him to lose a significant amount of support from voters who had either already decided to support Biden’s candidacy or were inclined to support his candidacy, “So, the bottom line is, I don’t think, his lackluster debate performance “The first will be the main deciding factor in terms of voter support levels for him and it is certainly a factor, yes, but it is not the deciding factor.”
early for debates
Civil rights lawyer and former Democratic House candidate Robert Pattillo said this was the first time a presidential debate had been held so early.
He added to Asharq that this would give Biden a full summer and fall to recover from his performance in this debate, “There will be no long-term impact from this debate unless President Biden continues to make more mistakes that reinforce this narrative.”
Pattillo believed that “the dilemma of swing voters, even before the debate, is that their preferences for Biden were weak. An opinion poll conducted by (Reuters/Ipsos) showed that the general support rate for US President Joe Biden declined during the month of May, and reached its lowest level in nearly Two years ago.
The poll, released on May 21, found that only 36% of Americans approve of Biden’s performance as president, down from 38% in April. After the debate, Fivethirtyeigh data showed that 59% of Americans disapproved of Biden’s performance.
“It was funny”
John Miles Coleman, a political researcher at the Center for Policy Studies at the University of Virginia, commented that Biden’s performance did not convince swing voters, and even some voters in his own party, that his age would not hinder him in a new state.
Coleman told Al-Sharq that it was funny because Biden did some things after last night’s debate, where he seemed more active, referring to his visit and his wife, Jill Biden, to the Waffle House restaurant in Atlanta, Georgia, after the debate and saying to those present: “I think we… “We did a good job in the presidential debate.”
The American political researcher pointed out that many Democrats wished this version of Biden had appeared in the debate instead of the restaurant, and said: “Perhaps one of Biden’s saving graces was that Trump did not say much to win more swing voters to his side. In the short term, I expect an improvement.” “Slightly in the polls in Trump’s favor, but we’ll see if that continues.”
To save his standing and chances with swing voters, political scientist Zach McCurry believes that Biden still has a chance in the next debate, in September, to prepare and qualify well.
Mekeri told Al-Sharq that he will now have to be more deliberate in proving to voters that he is qualified for the position of president and will remain in the position during the next four years. He added: “He has 4 months to prove this to voters before the elections.”
He added that missteps occur in presidential debates, referring to the poor performance of former President Barack Obama in the first debate against his Republican rival, Mitt Romney, in 2012, and how he recovered from it to win re-election.
McCurry added: “But Biden’s stumble was stronger.” He continued: “Biden must prepare, recover, and repair the damage he caused himself in that debate.”
Withdrawal.. Biden’s decision
The state of panic that gripped the Democrats during the debate and appeared through comments on social media raised questions about whether Biden should be replaced in the presidential race before next November by the Democrats.
Barack Obama’s 2008 campaign manager, who became a senior White House adviser, David Plouffe, presented two scenarios to the campaign and the Democratic Party: Biden stepping down, and the Democratic president “righting the ship.”
While Biden won a large majority of delegates from all 50 states that held their primaries, no one other than Biden himself could make the decision to withdraw and direct the delegates to vote for someone else.
Political activist, member of the Democratic Party and human rights lawyer, Allen Orr, said that the present time is not considered appropriate for the Democratic Party to struggle internally and “eat itself.”
Orr added to Al-Sharq that the 90 minutes that Biden spent in his first debate with Trump do not determine the course of the next 4 years, denouncing that the elections revolve around a bright personality for the presidency.
He noted that the election should “be about someone who can actually do the job and based on the record of the current candidates, Biden has passed more legislation than any other president in our modern history.”
As for University of Missouri political science professor Peverell Squire, he said that one of the main concerns that many voters have toward Biden is his age, and his performance in the debate fueled these concerns.
Speaking to Asharq Al-Awsat, Squire added that, despite this, some swing voters may believe that Biden is capable of continuing in office for another 4-year term.
Squire ruled out withdrawing the nomination from Biden in favor of another Democratic candidate, but said that if Biden chose to withdraw, it would allow the party to move on to another candidate.
Former Democratic candidate for the House of Representatives, Robert Pattillo, agreed with Squire that it is difficult for Democrats to replace Biden, saying that it is too late to replace a presidential election candidate, and legally impossible, in many states, to replace him on the ballot unless he dies.
He added: “For better or worse, Biden is the only hope for Democrats.”
McCurry said that Biden’s withdrawal, if it happens, would be a precedent in American politics, as no sitting president has ever withdrawn in the middle of a re-election campaign. He added, “Nothing is impossible in politics.”
Following the debate, senior Democratic officials, such as House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, announced that they did not need a new candidate to replace Biden, but American political scientist Miles Coleman assumed that some party leaders would talk to Biden, “and ask him to withdraw.”
It’s an assumption echoed by political scientist J. Wesley LeCron, who said a coalition of prominent Democrats such as former President Barack Obama, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and others could approach Biden and ask him to reconsider running. “I think that would have little impact,” he said.
Lecron noted that Biden wants to cement his legacy with a second term and believes he will be able to defeat Trump. It will be difficult for Democrats to prevent him from running for president.
In practical terms, Coleman considered the idea of Democrats abandoning Biden and replacing him in the election difficult, because it would mean canceling the initial results, in which Biden won by 99%.
He pointed out that replacing Biden is almost impossible unless he decides to do so himself. “The choice to withdraw is up to Biden alone,” because most of the delegates to the Democratic Convention have already pledged to him through the primaries.
Under the pledge, delegates are committed to voting for Biden at the Democratic convention, which will be held from August 19 to 22. If another candidate emerges, Coleman said, he will need to win more delegates than Biden, “or Biden will decide to withdraw and direct his pledged delegates to vote for another candidate he prefers.”
Replacing Biden with another candidate not only hinders the procedural and practical aspects, but political challenges may be the biggest obstacle, according to Webster University political science professor William Hall.
Hull explained that at this stage of the presidential campaign race, it would be extremely counterproductive and extremely unwise to try to replace or change the candidates.
While Hall noted that a lackluster performance in the first debate could certainly give cause for pause and concern, the partisan and political ramifications of Biden’s withdrawal would be significant.
Hall said that trying to find a different alternative candidate would be very difficult and chaotic and would lead to divisions within the Democratic Party, noting that the best strategy at this stage is to continue on the electoral path as it is, and continue moving forward, while improving performance and preparing well for the next debate.
Presidential Alternatives
While speculation is increasing about whether senior Democrats in the party will pressure President Biden to withdraw from the presidential race, a number of Democratic names are being mentioned as potential alternatives to the US President.
Democratic Party member and human rights lawyer Allen Orr expressed that he does not see any other viable alternative at this stage of the elections, noting that Biden represents the middle ground that unites the broad and divided coalition of the Democratic Party.
“I don’t expect at this stage of the election that there is another candidate who can rally Democrats around him,” he added.
While Coleman stressed that Biden is a stubborn Irishman who will go ahead in the elections, he pointed to some potential candidates to succeed the president in the face of Trump, led by Vice President Kamala Harris, saying: “I think Vice President Harris would be the most obvious alternative.”
Other potential names include Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, who represents the moderate wing of the Democratic Party and is a strong advocate for reproductive rights.
In 2020, the FBI thwarted an attempt to kidnap Whitmer, by a group belonging to a Michigan militia, who doubted the existence of the Corona virus and refused to impose precautionary measures because of it.
California Governor Gavin Newsom is also one of the alternatives proposed. Newsom is a major fundraiser for the Democratic Party.
Also on the list is Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker, who entered politics early, has been governor since 2019, and was re-elected again in 2022.
But Lecron warned that an open nominating process at the Democratic convention would lead to divisions among party factions that could affect unity in the general election in the fall.
With the exception of Vice President Harris, none of the candidates have ever run a presidential campaign before, meaning they are relatively unknown, he added. “This means that a new candidate will have to quickly define themselves and their priorities. The opposition will also have the ability to define and attack an untested candidate negatively. This is a significant risk given the short time between the nomination and the general election.”
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