Pity India’s pollsters. They have never been much good at predicting election results. In June, they suffered a humiliating setback when India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) unexpectedly lost its majority in a general election. Pradeep Gupta, the head of Axis My India agency, was so upset that he burst into tears on live television.
Promising to do better, pollsters soon turned their attention to the first two regional elections of Narendra Modi’s third term. (India’s prime minister pulled together a coalition government.) Their exit polls mostly predicted a crushing defeat for the BJP in the northern state of Haryana and a hung parliament in the union territory of Jammu & Kashmir. When results were announced on October 8th, the pollsters were confounded again: the BJP won easily in Haryana and an opposition alliance gained a majority in Jammu & Kashmir.
There are three conclusions to be drawn—apart from the fact that Indian elections are hard to predict. First, the BJP electoral machine appears to have found its feet again, despite Mr Modi’s weakened mandate. His new government has struggled to adapt to unfamiliar pressure from allies, opposition parties, courts and activists. It has also faced a rift with the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), the Hindu nationalist movement from which it grew.
The BJP faced additional challenges in Haryana, a largely agricultural state where it has been in power since 2014. Many farmers there worried that Mr Modi might reintroduce agricultural reform laws that he was forced to repeal in 2021 after massive protests. The party’s reputation also took a hit in 2023 when several female wrestlers from the state accused a BJP legislator of sexual harassment. In the general election, the BJP won only five out of ten seats in Haryana, half its tally in 2019.
Yet, in the state poll, the BJP took 48 of 90 local assembly seats. A decisive factor was the RSS. It took a back-seat role in the general election because of disagreements with BJP leaders. But the group launched a farmers’ outreach scheme in Haryana in September, deploying 150 volunteers to each district. It also helped that the BJP decided to appoint a new chief minister from a mid-tier caste in March and to choose dozens of new candidates.
A second conclusion is that the Congress party, the BJP’s main national rival, has much work to do. Congress won half the seats in Haryana in the general election, but only 37 of 90 in the state poll. Party insiders blamed complacency in its leadership, a dearth of fresh blood among candidates and over-reliance on a local party chieftain from the upper-caste Jat community. That alienated many lower-caste voters. Congress also failed to negotiate a seat-sharing pact with one of its own partners in an opposition alliance.
The BJP may be heartened, too, by its performance relative to Congress in Jammu & Kashmir. Opposition leaders portrayed the result as an indictment of Mr Modi’s move to strip the mostly Muslim region of its semi-autonomy in 2019. The result will no doubt increase pressure on Mr Modi to restore its statehood. Yet the BJP still won 29 of 90 seats (all in mostly Hindu Jammu). Congress won just six; its partner, the National Conference, took 42. BJP leaders cite that as further evidence that, in a straight fight, they easily outgun Congress. They also argue that the election’s peaceful conduct proves that Mr Modi has brought stability to the region.
Yet, cheery as this might all seem for the BJP, it is less so for Mr Modi. A third conclusion is that his party appears to be growing less dependent on him to win votes. In Haryana, he held just four rallies during the election campaign, compared with ten in 2014 and six in 2019. In Jammu & Kashmir, he held four. And BJP candidates in both polls focused more on local issues than on his image as a muscular, infallible leader. That could spell trouble for him if rivals in the BJP launch a leadership bid in the future.
The big question now is how the results will affect the next state elections, especially one in Maharashtra due by November 26th. Regional factors will probably dominate there, too, but the results from Haryana and Jammu & Kashmir could strengthen the BJP’s hand in seat-sharing talks with coalition partners while weakening Congress’s bargaining power. The outcome in Maharashtra will determine whether the BJP can consolidate its apparent comeback from the general-election upset. The race will be tight, according to polls. But don’t bet on it. ■
Subscribers to The Economist can sign up to our new Opinion newsletter, which brings together the best of our leaders, columns, guest essays and reader correspondence.
First appeared on www.economist.com