After decades with the group stage, the Champions League underwent a significant change this year, and was replaced by a league format and one table for 36 teams, a system that currently guarantees not only an extremely high goal ratio, but also drama until the last moment. After five rounds, the league stage enters the last line with few surprises and some senior teams that are at risk of the next stage.
Tonight will be the start of the sixth round, which may certainly provide us with quite a few tense moments and diverse scenarios, and Opta’s big data model provided a number: according to 50,000 simulations, 16 points will be enough to reach the top 8 (which qualifies directly for the round of 16), and ten points will be enough to secure a place In the top 24, the leader for the rest of the competition.
Teams like Liverpool (98.3%), Inter (90.9%) and Barcelona (76.3%) have great chances to finish in the top eight and automatically advance to the round of 16, while champions Real Madrid, for example, have only a 2.1% chance of being in the top eight, compared to 91.1% of reaching the playoffs.
Manchester City (81.7%), Atlético Madrid (63.6%) and Paris Saint-Germain (58%) also have better chances to reach the playoffs than to advance automatically. Daniel Peretz’s Bayern Munich, on the other hand, is on the fence, with 53.9% finishing in places 1-8 compared to 46% finishing between ninth and 24th place.
According to the forecast, this is how the table will look (in brackets: the chances of the position)
1. Liverpool – 22 (22.1%)
2. Inter* – 19 (23.3%)
3. Arsenal* – 19 (27.1%)
4. Borussia Dortmund* – 18 (21.6%)
5. Bayern Munich* – 18 (28.2%)
6. Atalanta – 17 (22.4%)
7. Barcelona* – 16 (19.5%)
8. Sporting Lisbon* – 16 (22.1%)
9. Lil* – 16 (26.1%)
10. Atletico Madrid* – 15 (25.1%)
11. Milan* – 15 (21.7%)
12. Manchester City* – 14 (22.7%)
13. Bayer Leverkusen* – 14 (21.3%)
14. Aston Villa* – 14 (22%)
15. Monaco – 13 (26.2%)
16. Issuance – 13 (21.7%)
17. Stade Brest – 13 (21.5%)
18. P.S.W. Eindhoven* – 12 (21.1%)
19. Juventus* – 12 (21.1%)
20. Celtic* – 12 (21.6%)
21. Real Madrid* – 12 (26.8%)
22. Feyenoord – 11 (23%)
23. Club Brugge* – 10 (22.6%)
24. Paris Saint-Germain* – 10 (20.2%)
25. Dinamo Zagreb* – 10 (24.3%)
26. Stuttgart* – 10 (26.6%)
27. Shakhtar Donetsk – 7 (24%)
28. Red Star Belgrade – 6 (24.3%)
29. Girona* – 4 (22.4%)
30. R.B. Leipzig* – 4 (20.8%)
31. Bologna* – 4 (22.1%)
32. Sparta Prague* – 4 (28.9%)
33. Sturm Graz* – 3 (26.5%)
34. Red Bull Salzburg* – 3 (35.5%)
35. Young Boys* – 3 (24.8%)
36. Sloven Bratislava – 0 (42.1%)
*The decision in case of a tie was determined according to the goal ratio before the start of the sixth round.
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