Writer and political thinker Radwan Al-Sayyid sees during his speech For the ninth On Sky News Arabia, Hezbollah andAmal Movement They could have overcome the presidential vacuum crisis months ago, if their decisions had been based on political realism instead of adhering to rigid positions.
According to Al-Sayed, long live leadership Hezbollah Unprecedented internal and external challenges, most notably the decline in Iranian support in light of increasing international and regional pressure.
Al-Sayed points out that Hezbollah has lost its deterrence capabilities South Lebanon Since the 2006 war, this reflects a broad strategic deterioration.
On the other hand, international relations researcher Ali Shukr points out that Election of the president In Lebanon, it has always been linked to external pressures, stressing that the current circumstances differ from previous stages.
Shukr sees that as a problem Lebanon It lies in the internal structure that allows regional and international interventions, which was clearly reflected in the continuous obstruction of the election of the President of the Republic.
Electing Aoun… a consensus of necessity or a phased deal?
With the escalation of American, French, and even regional pressure, the election became… Joseph Aoun A temporary solution to the crisis.
Supporting the army commander seems acceptable to international powers, especially US andFranceBecause it represents stability in the military institution, which is considered the cornerstone of maintaining Lebanese security.
However, as Al-Sayyid points out, the biggest challenge facing the Shiite duo is how to deal with a president who enjoys broad international and regional support, and who is likely to be less tolerant of Hezbollah’s security and political role.
Al-Sayed adds that the party is facing an internal legitimacy crisis, with increasing popular dissatisfaction with its performance and a decline in its popularity even within the Shiite environment.
Regional variables and their impact
The regional scene plays a decisive role in Lebanese settlements. The fall of a regime Bashar al-Assad In Syria, as Al-Sayed describes, it is a major turning point, as it affected the regional balance of power and weakened Hezbollah’s ability to maneuver.
Shukr also points out that the relative Iranian decline, despite continued American and Israeli pressure, created a strategic vacuum that the United States tried to exploit to reshape the scene in Lebanon.
The next stage raises questions about Aoun’s ability to manage the country amid the complex political structure. Shukr believes that the election of a new president may be the beginning of a broader political settlement that includes forming a government and rebuilding the state, but he warns that… Sectarian structure Current politics may hinder any serious reforms.
On the other hand, Al-Sayyid places great importance on restoring Lebanon’s regional role, especially in light of the opportunities available with the end of Bashar al-Assad’s regional role. He stresses the necessity of implementing economic and political reforms that restore the Lebanese people’s confidence in their state.
The election of Joseph Aoun, if it takes place, will be the product of an international and regional settlement rather than an expression of an internal Lebanese consensus. However, fundamental questions remain about its ability to confront the accumulated crises, especially in light of the role of Hezbollah and the continuation of foreign interventions.
As Mr. Washkar points out, the biggest challenge lies after the elections: Will Lebanon be able to rebuild its state on new foundations that transcend corruption and sectarian quotas? Or will electing a president be merely a temporary solution that prolongs the crisis?
The answer to these questions will be determined in light of the ability of the political forces to overcome their narrow calculations and work for a better future for Lebanon.