By stepping down from the presidential race, has Biden turned the tables on Netanyahu? | Politics

Two political analysts believe that the resignation of the US President Joe Biden The presidential race has confused the Israeli Prime Minister’s calculations Benjamin NetanyahuHe now had to think about the possibility of dealing with a Democratic female president of the United States.

In this context, Dr. Hassan Ayoub, Professor of Political Science at An-Najah National University in Palestine, said that Biden’s resignation was not good news for Netanyahu nor the Republican Party American, pointing out that Netanyahu’s recent statements reflect his calculations regarding the possibility of changing the winds of the American elections and opinion polls that give the Republican candidate Donald Trump Clear superiority.

The Palestinian academic stressed that Netanyahu is not in a favorable position to play on the internal political contradictions in Washington, and is now forced to deal with the possibility of dealing with a “female version of the former US president.” Barack Obama“, which has consistently voted against Republican policies in the Middle East.

Accordingly, Netanyahu will deliver his anticipated speech in the US Congress – according to Ayoub – under new circumstances that will affect the content of the speech, stressing that it will be directed to the two parties and their steadfast support for Israel.

Ayoub linked his reading of the content of Netanyahu’s speech to Biden’s confirmation that he will focus during the remaining period of his presidency on his duties, preserving his political legacy, and insisting on reaching a ceasefire in Gaza.

In turn, Michael Mulroy, former US Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East, believes that Biden is now free from electoral concerns and may focus on some foreign policy files, as the former US President did. Bill Clinton Before the end of his presidential term.

Mulroy stressed that Biden will focus on the legacy he will leave, not the electoral calculations, and he wants it to become Kamala Harris President to complete his career.

According to the American spokesman, Netanyahu is trying to make a political calculation to know the identity of the new US president, noting that he was betting on Trump before, but now the equation has changed and he must take into consideration the identity of the next president.

Netanyahu and Trump

On the other hand, Ayoub recalled Trump’s criticism of Netanyahu and considered the failure Israel In Gaza, he described the latter’s personal failure and called on him to step down, believing that the former’s victory was an adventure with uncertain results for Netanyahu, while the Biden administration was no longer interested in a policy of direct confrontation with the Israeli government.

But he expected Trump to repeat his pro-Israel policies in his first presidential term if the Republicans won the presidential and congressional elections.

However, the Palestinian academic believes that the relationship with Netanyahu does not occupy the top spot in American domestic affairs, but rather ranks third or fourth, as fears grow of the degree of polarization in America and the delegitimization of the rival party.

But Mulroy warned against Trump’s arrival, as he does not follow the general policy of the Republican Party, takes personal positions and may conflict with Netanyahu in the future, while Harris’ victory would be in line with Biden’s foreign policy, expecting Netanyahu to be exposed to greater pressure under her administration.

Pressure sheets

Regarding the pressure elements that the US administration has on Netanyahu, Ayoub believes that the risks of expanding the scope of the conflict in the region are no longer an obsession but rather a reality that affects US interests and the security and normalization arrangements that Washington seeks in the region.

In addition, Washington knows the balance of Israeli internal relations and is aware of the parties that want to reach a prisoner exchange deal and those who oppose it, noting that the United States is focusing on post-deal arrangements that are being worked on with Doha and Cairo, according to Ayoub.

On the relations front, Mulroy acknowledged the existence of personal problems between Biden and Netanyahu, but ruled out that the former would risk US-Israeli relations, as he viewed them from the perspective of the interests of both parties. He stressed that the ceasefire talks and prisoner exchange in Gaza would occupy a major space during Netanyahu’s visit to Washington, stressing at the same time that both parties in the United States oppose the idea of ​​expanding the scope of the war from Gaza to Hizb allah AndHouthis.