If you live in southern California, then it would come as no surprise that the ground could start shaking at any time. That’s because this part of the country is prone to earthquakes.
But it might come as a surprise that this isn’t the only part of the country where the ground could and has started shaking. Central Virginia and the Lowcountry of South Carolina, for example, have and could in the future be home to the next big earthquake.
It’s these unexpected hotspots that can inflict the most pain because the population and the buildings aren’t prepared for the damage that could ensue.
Predicting Unexpected Earthquakes
Charleston, South Carolina endured a devastating earthquake in 1886, which was felt all the way to Wisconsin. By today’s standards the 7.3 Richter scale beast, which killed 60 people, caused $186 million in damage. While we didn’t have Richter scales back then, we can look at the scale of the damage that a quake caused at that time and estimate its magnitude.
The revised National Seismic Hazard Model first looks at the kind of earthquake that might happen in a particular location, known as the “ground motion model” and the second highlights the probability of earthquakes happening at different locations, called the “earthquake rupture forecast,” based on available fault lines.
Researchers also look at liquefaction, an indication that the groundwater in the past was shaken up because of a large earthquake, and, as a result, the ground above was softened and therefore susceptible to damage.
Read More: Animals Sense Earthquakes Before They Happen. Can They Help Us Predict Disasters?
How Scientists Identify New Fault Lines
According to Mark Petersen, report author and research geophysicist with the Earthquake Hazards Program at U.S. Geological Survey, the report was surprising in the number of places where quakes have occurred in the past. Researchers found that 75 percent of the U.S. has some record of potentially damaging earthquakes from the past.
“That means that there’s a reasonable chance that we could have at least light damage over this broad area, which is not something that I would have anticipated,” says Petersen.
Additionally, the report used more extensive geological data than researchers have ever used before, leading to a more accurate report of potential future quakes. The report included 350 new faults — cracks in the earth’s crust which could lead to seismic activity. While the earthquake sizes range dramatically from a few millimeters to thousands of kilometers, researchers can learn lot about these areas that could be vulnerable to future earthquakes.
Read More: 20 Things You Didn’t Know About … Earthquakes
The Importance of Earthquake Forecasting
The San Andreas Fault is a major contender for the next big earthquake as it’s gone without one since 1857. But that doesn’t mean that other areas aren’t on the radar of other studies. Sizable earthquakes have happened in places like Mineral, Virginia, where on August 23, 2011, millions of people across the nation felt some unexpected shake in the form of a 5.8 Richter scale.
No lives were lost, as Mineral is a tiny town with a small population, but it did cause upwards of $200 million in damage. The quake even caused extensive damage to the Washington Monument, which is over two hours away by car.
“People, especially in the eastern U.S., don’t understand that there’s a risk of earthquakes,” says Petersen.
Another quake that happened this year in New Jersey was also felt broadly across the eastern U.S. Petersen says that the quakes that happen in the eastern and central U.S. can be felt over a larger region compared to those in the west. And when a quake happens once, it can and will happen again.
The benefit of looking at potentially unexpected places where earthquakes could occur is that locals can adjust building codes to sustain a big quake. Even though in the end, experts will never know for sure where the next earthquake will occur and how big it will be.
Read More: The Disasters You Might Not Think About
Article Sources
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Sara Novak is a science journalist based in South Carolina. In addition to writing for Discover, her work appears in Scientific American, Popular Science, New Scientist, Sierra Magazine, Astronomy Magazine, and many more. She graduated with a bachelor’s degree in Journalism from the Grady School of Journalism at the University of Georgia. She’s also a candidate for a master’s degree in science writing from Johns Hopkins University, (expected graduation 2023).
First appeared on www.discovermagazine.com